Democratic prospects of taking control of the Senate were evaporating early Wednesday after several vulnerable Republican incumbents including Joni Ernst in Iowa and Steve Daines in Montana fended off well-financed Democratic challengers.
While there were six Senate races still to be settled, Democrats would need an extraordinary surge to win three of them, which would give them the minimum 50 seats they’d need to control the Senate -- and only then if Democrat Joe Biden prevails over President Donald Trump at the top of the ballot.
“I have a very hard time right now seeing how Democrats win back the Senate,” Jessica Taylor, Senate editor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report, said on Twitter. “It’s just that virtually everything has to go right for them. And so far tonight, almost nothing has.”
Across the board, Democrats failed to meet the Election Day expectations raised by polls and independent analysts. The party took Senate seats from Republicans in Colorado and Arizona. But they fell short in several of the tossup contests they had in their sights to gain a majority.
In the House, Democrats appeared poised to keep their majority but potentially with reduced numbers despite pre-election forecast that they could gain at least 15 more seats. At least six Democratic incumbents were defeated, including House Agriculture Chairman Collin Peterson, who has represented his Minnesota district since 1991. Other Democratic losses came in Florida, New Mexico, Oklahoma and North Carolina.
In the Senate contests, Daines defeated Democratic Governor Steve Bullock and Ernst turned aside a challenge from Democrat Theresa Greenfield. In two key races yet to be called, GOP Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina were holding on to leads in vote counts.
Republicans now hold a 53-47 Senate majority and Democrats would either have to win Maine and North Carolina -- their best shots heading into the election -- or cobble together victories in Georgia and Alaska to gain control. And the Democratic incumbent in Michigan, Senator Gary Peters, was trailing Republican John James. Alaska and Georgia are a stretch for Democrats. Democrats also will have another shot at a Senate seat in Georgia in a runoff election scheduled for January.
The battle for the Senate closely mirrored the race at the top of the ballot between Trump and Biden, ending up much closer than many pre-election polls and forecasts had indicated.
Democrat John Hickenlooper defeated GOP incumbent Cory Gardner in Colorado and retired astronaut Mark Kelly won his race against Republican Senator Martha McSally in Arizona. Biden won both states.
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