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As the US and its Western allies realign supply chains to strengthen economic resiliency, the cost of certain goods and commodities will go up. I call this “resiliency-driven inflation.”
I received a note from renowned economist Bill White about this, which prompted our interview. Bill is a former chairman of the Economic and Development Review Committee at the OECD. He has served at the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, and he is a long-time favorite speaker at the Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference.
Bill and I share concerns about an extended era of both higher inflation and higher interest rates. He sees us moving from an age of plenty, which he pegs as roughly 1990 to 2020, to an age of scarcity. In our interview, he discusses the five key macroeconomic factors driving this shift.
These are big-picture issues that virtually no one in Washington is covering, and Bill proposes some solutions that are bound to be unpopular, including higher taxes.
Nevertheless, these are critical conversations. As Bill puts it, “We're in a war to preserve our market-based, capitalist, democratic system in an environment that is going to be very, very difficult to navigate.”
Get more analysis from Bill White here:
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Time stamps:
00:00 – Introduction
01:45 – We’re shortsighted on inflation
06:00 – Reversal of globalization
11:33 – Addressing the worker shortage
12:32 – Could climate change make Miami unlivable?
14:07 – The “guns and butter” problem
17:00 – “Start building the silos”
18:03 – Paying for the war
19:04 – The fundamental macro problem
23:52 – The debt spiral
29:21 – If you want peace…
37:03 – The risk of revolution
