Weather and Climate Seasonal Forecasting (S2S): Long Historical Time Series, Sea State Scenarios, Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Forecast, Seasonal Forecast, Climate change
Lecturer: Chris Harris, Met Office, UK .
Briefing mentions sea-state scenarios (not quite sure what this refers to in the coupled context)
Coupled reanalyses to provide long historical time-series (e.g. CFS, CERA) - or do I need to leave that for Keith (reanalysis) and Ibrahim (coupled DA)?
Short-range applications - operational and pre-operational coupled systems (including regional systems) e.g. applications from Canadian systems (storm false alarm reductions in global system, TC Neoguri example, GSL & Great Lakes systems, Arctic system, marine emergency response, weather prediction, fisheries etc ), coupled TC systems
Medium range / sub-seasonal - increased predictability of MJO in coupled models due to temporal coherence of SST anomalies and convection (potential role of Rossby waves inocean).
Influence on prediction of tropical weather, Indian & Asian monsoons, TC activity (example of NWS CPC Hazards Outlook)
Seasonal forecasting applications - probabilistic predictions of ENSO (from either statistical or dynamical coupled ocean-atmos models) and more recently NAO provide useful information for stakeholders; examples from ENSO teleconnections (not much on this to avoid overlap with Michael McPhaden), predictions of Atlantic hurricane activity, NAO (particularly focus on European winter incl guidance for government, electricity & gas demand planning, wind power generation estimation, airport / rail incidents, road salt needs, infrastructure damage by storms, winter river flow predictions etc; other examples like Yangtze rainfall & river flow), extremes
Decadal forecasting applications - e.g. multi-year Atlantic hurricane forecast predictions (based on skill of NAO prediction in year 2 and beyond), AMOC predictions (importance of ARGO), global temperature predictions, extreme event probabilities.
Climate prediction applications - adaptation to changing climate e.g infrastructure, mitigation & policy advice, '2 degrees', water resources, heat stress, infrastructure, health, agriculture, downscaling for regional impacts (incl e.g. high resolution ocean models driven by fluxes from downscaled atmos), IPCC, emission scenarios / pathways etc
