This video is an introduction to the foresight practice of scanning. It focuses on the key differences between Environmental Scanning and Horizon Scanning. It also covers the differences between different schools of thought in looking for forces of change in the environment, the conceptual frameworks often used in scanning (STEEP, STEEPV, PESTEL, etc.), and Emerging Issues Analysis. The video is also available in article format: [ Ссылка ]

Support Alex: [ Ссылка ]


SELECTED REFERENCES
Environmental Scanning and Horizon Scanning:
Aguilar (1967). Scanning the Business Environment.

Cairns & Wright (2018). Scenario thinking: Preparing your organization for the future in an unpredictable world: [ Ссылка ]

Chermack (2011). Scenario planning in organizations: How to create, use, and assess scenarios: [ Ссылка ]

Conway (2009). Environmental Scanning: [ Ссылка ]

Conway (2016). Foresight Infused Strategy: [ Ссылка ]

Cuhls (2019). Horizon Scanning in Foresight – Why Horizon Scanning is only a part of the game: [ Ссылка ]

Day & Schoemaker (2005). Scanning the Periphery: [ Ссылка ]

Delaney & Osborne (2013). Public sector horizon scanning – stocktake of the Australasian Joint Agencies Scanning Network: [ Ссылка ]

Hines et al. (2018). Setting Up a Horizon Scanning System: A U.S. Federal Agency
Example: [ Ссылка ]

Loveridge (2008). Foresight: The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future: [ Ссылка ]

Miles & Saritas (2012). The depth of the horizon: searching, scanning and widening horizons: [ Ссылка ]

Miles et al. (2016). Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation: [ Ссылка ]

Padbury (2020). An Overview of the Horizons Foresight Method: Using the “Inner Game” of Foresight to Build System-Based Scenarios: [ Ссылка ]

Rowe et al. (2017). Enhancing horizon scanning by utilizing pre-developed scenarios: Analysis of current practice and specification of a process improvement to aid the identification of important ‘weak signals’: [ Ссылка ]

Sardar (2014). Future: All that Matters: [ Ссылка ]

Sarits & Smith (2011). The Big Picture – trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals: [ Ссылка ]

Webb (2018). The Signals Are Talking: Why Today's Fringe Is Tomorrow's Mainstream: [ Ссылка ]

Wilson & Ralston (2006). Scenario Planning Handbook: Developing Strategies in Uncertain Times: [ Ссылка ]

Emerging Issues Analysis:
Dator (2009). Trend Analysis vs Emerging Issues Analysis: [ Ссылка ]

Dator (2018). Emerging Issues Analysis: Because of Graham Molitor: [ Ссылка ]

Molitor (2010). Timeline 22-Step Model for Tracking and Forecasting Public Policy Change:
[ Ссылка ]

Molitor (2017). The Molitor Model of Change: [ Ссылка ]


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