In the wake of the first Fed rate cut since 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield (the benchmark for borrowing costs worldwide) has risen around 10%. So, what is going on? While many propose that the Fed will have to reverse course, I help make sense of all this and explain several reasons for the seeming "wrong" direction of interest rates.
Furthermore, while many would have expected the U.S. dollar to be weakening since the September Fed rate cut, it is showing short-term strength. I focus on the key levels of support and resistance, helping you tune out the noise of the media, especially during this VERY noisy lead-up to the U.S. presidential election. I offer a few words of wisdom from my 20+ years of experience, notably that traders should focus on the chart and filter out the market noise.
Next, I dive into several charts, including U.S. stocks, small cap stocks, Chinese stocks, gold, gold mining, silver, silver mining, bitcoin, and ethereum.
I cover one of my favorite charts of the S&P 500, market breadth, which is nearing the "Take Profits" zone. Small cap stocks have been underperforming the broader market this year, but are consolidating near a multi-year breakout level. Once the 2024 election is decided and the markets have certainty on the issue, sidelined cash could flood in and push small caps (and the overall market) up into the end of the year.
Enjoy the video!
Jerry Robinson
Followthemoney.com
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