A ‘severe’ cyclonic storm Dana is set to hit the Odisha-Bengal coast by 24th October. It has triggered a high alert in the states, prompting the officials to close all the schools in the coastal districts.
While the deep depression over the Bay of Bengal has transformed into a cyclonic storm, there is uncertainty in its forecast for landfall and the reason could be insufficient input information for the forecast models.
According to IMD, the cyclone may turn severe in the early morning hours of October 24 and make landfall between Puri in Odisha and Sagar Islands in West Bengal. The crossing of the severe cyclone Dana with wind speeds between 100-110 km/hr with gusts of up to 120 km/hr may happen between the night of October 24 and morning of October 25.
Difficulties in prediction could arise when the structure of the cyclone system itself is not well organised. If a cyclone forms from the lower troposphere (0-8 km from sea level) to the upper troposphere then it is well organised and easier to forecast.
The government has cancelled leave for its employees and placed all coastal districts on high alert. The Odisha Disaster Rapid Action Force, West Bengal government, Coast Guard, NDRF and fire service personnel have been put on standby. In Odisha, there is particular attention to the districts of Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Puri, Balasore, Bhadrak, Ganjam and Khorda.
Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean region have been quite uncertain in recent years because of various factors such as rapid intensification (RI) even though the IMD has kept a tight rein on the tracks, intensities and places of landfall of most of them.
RI is said to occur when a tropical cyclone gains wind speeds of more than 55 km/hr in a 24 hour period. One reason for the divergent models could be the lack of adequate input observational data, especially from the sea surface and subsurface in the Bay of Bengal.
Cyclones frequently impact Odisha’s coastline, and authorities are taking the threat seriously, ensuring precautionary measures are in place to mitigate the impact. The government has also issued a warning to residents and tourists, advising them against visiting seaside areas during the cyclone. Local authorities are coordinating efforts to safeguard the population.
Down to Earth is Science and Environment fortnightly published by the Society for Environmental Communication, New Delhi. We publish news and analysis on issues that deal with sustainable development, which we scan through the eyes of science and environment.
