What is Contango and backwardation?

Contango and Backwardation are terms used to define the structure of the forward curve. When a
market is in contango, the forward price of a futures contract is higher than the spot price. Conversely, when a market is in backwardation, the forward price of the futures contract is l
ower than the spot price.

Contango

In this chart, the spot price is lower than the futures price which has generated an upward sloping forward curve. This market is in contango - the futures contracts are trading at a premium to the spot price. Physically delivered futures contracts may be in a contango because of fundamental factors like storage, financing (cost to carry) and insurance costs. The futures prices can change over time as market participants change their views of the future expected spot price; so the forward curve changes and may move from contango to backwardation.

Backwardation

In this chart, the spot price is higher than future prices and has generated a downward sloping forward, or inverted, curve which is in backwardation. The futures forward curve may become backwardated in physically - delivered contracts because there may be a benefit to owning the physical material, such as keeping a production process running. This is known as the convenience yield, which is an implied return on warehouse inventory. The convenience yield is inversely related to inventory levels. When warehouse stocks are high, the convenience yield is low and when stocks are low, the yield is high.

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Develop Your Edge is a weekly talk show hosted by 22-year futures veteran and CME member Anthony Crudele, an ex-pit trader and one of the first to trade the E-Mini S&P. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Anthony Crudele nor his guest’s guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment discussed on this website or on the show. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investors may get back less than invested. Investments or strategies mentioned on this website or on the show may not be suitable for you. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies mentioned on this website or on the show. Before acting on information on this website or on the show, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser.

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