Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, and John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, talk the economic implications of the coronavirus outbreak.
The new coronavirus outbreak in China has hit global supply chains hard and spurred sourcing away from the world’s manufacturing hub — a shift that started amid the U.S.-China tariff fight.
As business activity and transportation has been restricted in many Chinese cities, companies unable to fulfill contractual obligations are applying for force majeure certificates issued by China’s Council for the Promotion of International Trade.
Companies that present such certificates to the counterparties of their deals could — depending on the clauses of their contracts — be absolved from paying penalties for being unable to fulfill agreed upon terms due to circumstances beyond their control. China’s total trade reached 30.51 trillion Chinese yuan ($4.4 trillion) in 2018.
Since it announced the availability of these slips at the end of January, the council has issued 1,615 of these certificates in just two weeks, Xinhua state news agency reported, citing data from the council. Those certificates cover a total contract value of 109.9 billion Chinese yuan ($15.8 billion) worth of goods that could be cancelled or for which fulfillment could be deferred, Xinhua reported.
Most of the applications for the force majeure certificates had been from Chinese exporters, although there were a few inquiries from importers, Reuters reported, citing an unnamed source.
The demand for these slips — which Xinhua reports stretches over 30 sectors — underscores the impact that extended city shutdowns and factory closures have on international supply chain, trade and shipping in China.
Dun and Bradstreet estimate that there are around 22 million businesses — or 90% of all active businesses in China — within the regions impacted by the new coronavirus, now formally named COVID-19. This in turn, would impact at least 56,000 companies around the world with suppliers either directly or in the first and second tiers, said the commercial data and analytics consultancy.
It’s not just manufactured goods but raw materials, such as those used in garment making, that have been hit, said Stanley Szeto, executive chairman at Lever Style, a clothing manufacturer. China is the world’s largest cotton producer.
Besides being unable to ship, companies are also unable to take delivery of what they had previously ordered as copper and liquefied natural gas traders.
For instance, “LNG demand has fallen off a cliff since January,” commodity consultancy Wood Mackenzie said bluntly in a recent report.
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