Analysis of the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage. I use Kilcullen's theory about liminal warfare and prospect theory to analyse the operational design.
This shows that Russia is the most likely suspect, because all other actors would have made different operational choices.
I then give some pretty depressing perspectives on how Russia might use hybrid warfare against Europe.
0:00 Intro
1:02 Model for hybrid warfare
1:51 Operational design of Nord Stream sabotage
3:05 Consequences of the attack
4:59 US, Poland and Ukraine
6:56 NGOs and climate activists
7:25 Russia
8:17 Who would take the risk?
8:42 Prospect theory
9:33 Russia likely to take risks
10:16 Blow up their own pipeline?
11:30 Hybrid war on Europe
