The economies of developed nations are back on track, or are getting there. The U.S. and UK both are in growth mode, and quantitative easing and low oil prices should lift Japan and the euro zone. But the outlook is less optimistic for developing and emerging nations that depend on exports of petroleum or other commodities. Russia's economy remains weak as a result of the oil glut and Western sanctions. Brazil is near recession and growth in China may dip below 7 percent. Among the BRIC nations, only India is likely to witness accelerating growth. Emerging Asia may take up some of the slack, but the global downside risks are clear. What if there is a Grexit? Would it derail the euro zone recovery? What if consumers save the windfall from low oil prices and investment in exploration is severely restrained? Have markets underestimated the risks from Fed interest rate increases in the U.S.? Equity markets have been on a tear despite continuing deflationary risk. Where will the global economy be on balance?

свернуть