According to the Georgia State University report mentioned earlier, the pandemic could accelerate automation because of the social constraints of the virus. Stay-at-home orders, social distancing, and the nature of the virus's transmission all make uninfectable automated labor more appealing to employers.
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The Future of Work
According to the report, some sectors already most in danger from are also at significant risk for automation. Roles that can be automated include 73 percent of food services, 41 percent of entertainment and recreation, and 44 percent of wholesale trade. Sectors less exposed to also have high automation potential, including construction (47 percent), personal care (49 percent), and manufacturing (60 percent).
These sound like worrisome figures, but they don't mean the employers will definitely introduce automation. Large-scale automation is easier said than done. It's not a light switch. A single flick will not create robot waiters. As Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman notes, many industries were "exposed" to automation for much of modern history but never actually experienced significant disruption.
No, what will likely happen (at least at first) are modest automation projects that contribute to overall efficiency. There is already scattershot data confirming this. Automated floor cleaner company Brain Corp says it has seen a 13.8 percent robotic usage increase in the first quarter of this year among retailers in U.S. locations and a 24 percent rise in the second quarter. With offices closed, PayPal has used automated chatbots for a record 65 percent of all customer inquiries.
These preliminary reports are incomplete, but they suggest that automation is indeed increasing during the pandemic, although the mismatch between the dire predictions and reality should be noted.
Safety and Efficiency: What Automation Means to Workers Right Now
Despite all the jobs-destroying rhetoric, automation is actually helping workers stay safe and efficient during the pandemic. Automation is, at its core, about removing human beings from work processes. This creates efficiencies in normal circumstances, but with , this erasure of human touchpoints also improves safety.
Automation can spare workers, especially front-liners -- including grocery store staff, nurses, hospital secretaries, and police officers -- from additional human contact. Automatic checkouts, medical imaging based on machine learning, automated intake forms, and AI-based identity detection can all limit human contact and inhibit the virus from spreading.
Even away from the front lines, automation can help businesses reopen with proper safety measures. Consider manufacturing. To maintain social distancing, some manufacturing businesses will employ collaborative robots (cobots) as part of the assembly line. By working side-by-side with humans, cobots can pick, sort, and replenish materials without fear of carrying the virus. Businesses that must operate at 25 to 50 percent capacity can use cobots to get up and running while also enhancing safety.
The efficiencies generated by automation also take on new significance during . Imagine a doctor, stuck in her office completing insurance forms. An automated computer vision program could scan this paperwork, extract the data, and generate complete insurance files. This frees the doctor to do what she's best at: treating patients. Automation can also reduce costly human errors. For instance, automating control systems can reduce interpretative medical errors in overpacked hospitals.
A Final Word
In the end, the amount of job disruption could hinge on the virus itself. If a vaccine is ready by year's end, businesses may not rush to automate. If the virus continues to drag on into 2022, automation might become more appealing. For most small businesses, automation will present an unmanageable expense; large enterprises are more likely to be able to invest in this new infrastructure.
Nobody can predict the future with certainty, but we can see what automation means in the here and now. It's true that many jobs have "exposure" to elimination, but one of the big impacts automation has had during the pandemic is making roles safer and more effective. Only time will tell if disruption from automation during the pandemic is significant, but it's by no means guaranteed to be so in the future.
