(19 Jan 2018) On a sweltering early-summer afternoon in Little Havana, President Donald Trump told a cheering Cuban-American crowd that he was rolling back some of Barack Obama's opening to Cuba in order to starve the island's military-run economy of US tourism dollars and ratchet up pressure for regime change.
More than half a year later, that doesn't appear to be happening.
Cuban government figures show that 2017 was a record year for tourism, with a record 4.7 million visitors pumping more than 3 billion US dollars into the island's otherwise struggling economy.
Much of that 18 percent increase over 2016 seems to be going to the state tourism sector, according to owners of private restaurants and bed-and-breakfasts reporting a sharp drop-off in business.
The ultimate destination of American tourism spending cuts to a decades-old goal of US foreign policy - encouraging change in Cuba's single-party, centrally planned system.
For decades, US policy was to strangle all possible trade to the island in hope of spurring economic collapse and regime change.
Obama changed that policy to one of promoting engagement as a way of strengthening a private sector that could grow into a middle class empowered to demand reform.
While tourism to Cuba remains illegal under US law, Americans can travel here for specially designated purposes like religious activity or the vaguely defined category of "people-to-people" cultural interaction.
Obama allowed individuals to participate in "people-to-people" activities outside of official tour groups, allowing hundreds of thousands of Americans to design their own Cuban vacations without fear of government penalties.
Since Cuba largely steers tour groups to government-run facilities, individual Americans became a vital market for private entrepreneurs, hotly desired for their free spending, heavy tipping and desire to see a "real" Cuba beyond all-inclusive beach resorts and quick stops on tour buses.
That helped travel-related businesses maintain their role as by far the most successful players in Cuba's small but growing private sector.
Trump's new policy re-imposed the required for "people-to-people" travel to take place only in tour groups, which depend largely on Cuban government transportation and guides.
While Trump's new rules only went into effect in November, their announcement in June led to an almost immediate slackening in business, according to many Cuban entrepreneurs.
The situation was worsened by Hurricane Irma striking Cuba's northern coast in September, and by a Cuban freeze on new licenses for the businesses including restaurants and bed-and-breakfasts.
Cuban officials say the freeze is due to the need to control tax evasion, purchase of stolen state good and other illegality in the private sector, but it's had the effect of restricting private-sector activity in the wake of Trump's policy change.
Cuba's tourism boom began shortly after Obama and President Raul Castro announced in Dec. 2014 that their countries would be re-establishing diplomatic relations and moving toward normalisation.
US cruise ships began docking in the Bay of Havana, US airlines started regular flights to cities across the island and the number of American leisure travelers rose to 619,000 in 2017, more than six times its pre-Obama level.
Overall tourism last year was up 56 percent over Cuba's roughly three million visitors in 2014.
Government figures show that 34 percent of tourists stay in the island's 24,000 privately run rooms.

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