Sam Fankhauser's lecture focused on trends in climate legislation and the global challenge of reaching net zero emissions by the middle of the century. Over 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions are now covered by a net zero target. To be meaningful, these pledges need to be matched by policies and laws to implement them.
The lecture started by recapitulating the importance of net zero emissions in halting global warming. The Paris Agreement was highlighted as a significant global milestone in addressing climate change, with the goal of limiting global temperature rise to well below two degrees Celsius. Sam explained that this target is associated with a finite global carbon budget. A technologically and economically meaningful way to use up the remaining carbon budget requires emissions to be cut in half within ten years. Once the carbon budget is used up, any additional emissions must be matched by the removal of carbon from the atmosphere. Net zero refers to this balance between emissions and removals.
Sam then introduced a database with over 2000 pieces of legislation worldwide that directly or indirectly address climate change issues. Every country in the world has at least one climate change law. However, implementing and enforcing them is a significant challenge. Contrary to what many people believe, action on climate change is a bipartisan issue. Governments of the political right and left have passed climate laws roughly in proportion to their time in office.
Sam then asked what this body of laws has achieved, using the example of the UK's Climate Change Act. In the UK, the Climate Change Act has led to a more structured, more informed policy debate, anchored in an agreed evidence base provided by an independent committee. But the true test of a good climate law is whether it reduces emissions. The UK Act has helped decoupling national emissions from GDP. The UK now uses three times less carbon per unit of GDP than in 1990. Climate policy has played a part in this success, but so have other factors, such as the 1990s “dash for gas” (which helped to phase down coal). Globally, there are now over 20 countries that have decoupled carbon emissions and GDP, but it is a trend that needs to accelerate rapidly over the coming years.
