PERT Estimated Times | Optimistic | Most likely | Pessimistic | PERT | Critical Path | Basics
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The Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a project management technique that is used to analyze and schedule the tasks involved in completing a project. It was developed in the 1950s by the U.S. Navy for the Polaris missile project and has since been widely adopted in various industries.
PERT is a network-based scheduling method that helps project managers to determine the critical path, estimate project duration, and identify the tasks that have the most impact on the project timeline. It allows for a more accurate assessment of the project's completion time by considering uncertainties and variations in task durations.
The key components of PERT are as follows:
Network Diagram: PERT represents the project tasks and their dependencies in a graphical form called a network diagram. The diagram consists of nodes (representing tasks) and arrows (representing dependencies).
Optimistic, Most Likely, and Pessimistic Estimates: For each task in the network diagram, three time estimates are obtained: optimistic (O), most likely (M), and pessimistic (P). These estimates are based on expert judgment or historical data.
Critical Path: PERT calculates the critical path, which is the longest sequence of dependent tasks that determines the overall duration of the project. The critical path represents the minimum time required to complete the project.
Expected Duration: Using the estimates obtained for each task, PERT calculates the expected duration for the project. It takes into account the variations and uncertainties in task durations by using a weighted average formula: Expected duration = (O + 4M + P) / 6.
Slack or Float: PERT also identifies the slack or float for each task, which represents the amount of time that a task can be delayed without affecting the overall project duration. Tasks on the critical path have zero slack.
Project Monitoring: During the execution of the project, PERT provides a basis for monitoring and controlling the progress. By comparing the actual time taken for each task with the expected duration, project managers can identify any deviations and take corrective actions.
PERT is particularly useful for projects that have a high degree of uncertainty or complexity. By considering the range of estimates and analyzing critical paths, project managers can better plan and manage the project to meet its deadlines. However, PERT does require careful estimation and may not be suitable for all types of projects, especially those with fixed and predictable task durations.
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