Your Mobile - Pensacola - Gulf Coast Area Weather Forecast for September 22, 2024

— Quiet forecast, Tropical disturbance, Forecast uncertainty —

Our forecast for the next few days is hot but remarkably quiet, with sunny skies and no chance of rain expected through Tuesday. Beyond that, a tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico will become the main focus of our forecast. Currently, there's significant uncertainty, and models are struggling to predict how this system will develop. We'll have a clearer picture once the system actually forms in the Caribbean. For now, everyone should check back for forecast updates over the next few days.

**THE FIRST DAY OF FALL:**

Autumn begins on the Gulf Coast! However, above-average temperatures will make it feel more like summer. Sunday's highs will range from the upper 80s at the beaches to the mid-90s inland. Expect mostly sunny skies throughout the day with no chance of rain. In the evening, temperatures will drop into the 80s, then the 70s overnight under mainly clear skies.

**THE START OF THE WEEK:**

Monday through Wednesday will be very quiet. High pressure over the region means a continuation of summer-like temperatures and clear skies. Highs each day will be in the low 90s, with overnight lows around 70 degrees. This makes for some great beach weather over the next few days! If you plan to hit the beach, the rip current risk is low. However, we'll likely see an increase in surf heights and a medium rip current risk beginning Wednesday, as attention turns to the Gulf of Mexico for possible tropical development.

**TROPICS - POSSIBLE GULF SYSTEM IN THE WEEK AHEAD:**

A broad area of low pressure is currently developing in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A portion of this low may consolidate into an organized tropical depression or storm in the coming days as it moves north into the Gulf of Mexico. Whatever develops will eventually bring impacts to some portion of the Gulf Coast late this week into this weekend. This system could come ashore anywhere from Louisiana to south Florida. The nature of the impacts will be determined by the strength of the system. Forecasting the intensity of a tropical system is extremely difficult, but early indications are that this could range from a tropical storm to a substantial hurricane. Residents across the Gulf Coast should closely monitor the forecast over the coming days and have the necessary supplies to take action if a storm does come our way.

#Tropics #alwx #GulfCoast

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FOX10 METEOROLOGIST NICHOLAS HERBOSO:

Nicholas Herboso is the newest member of the FOX10 StormTracker Team. He comes to FOX10 from the University of South Alabama, where he studied broadcast meteorology and minored in music. Nicholas is a native of Fairhope, AL, and is proud to call the Gulf Coast home. He was motivated to pursue a career in weather broadcasting after living through multiple hurricanes on the Gulf Coast and watching the coverage from local meteorologists like John Edd Thompson, especially after watching their coverage of the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons. Past extreme weather events got Nicholas interested in weather early on. For him, weather is a passion that he is excited to share with viewers.

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