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Recent writings by Michael Pettis:
“Which Country Should Design U.S. Industrial Policy?”: [ Ссылка ]
“Trade and the Manufacturing Share”: [ Ссылка ]
“Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace”: [ Ссылка ]
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:18 The Problem With China's Investment-Driven Growth Model
09:52 Why Increasing China's Consumption Is So Hard
17:36 China's Plan To Reignite Economic Growth In China
20:43 Why China Will Follow Similar Path To Japan In Its Economic Decline In 1990s
24:03 Impact That Trade Surplus Countries (China, Germany, etc.) Have on Trade Deficit Countries (U.S., U.K., etc.)
28:06 VanEck Ad
28:46 Interview Continues
36:59 The Fall of The "Trade Is Always Good" Consensus Among Economists
49:58 Permissionless Ad
50:57 Is China "Cheating At Trade"?
57:19 The Three Things The U.S. Can Do To Respond To Its Role As "Global Consumer Of Last Resort"
01:01:53 Why U.S. Capital Controls Are Necessary To Truly Fix The American Trade Deficit
01:06:35 Both Trump and Biden Factions Are Determined To Resolve U.S.' Trade Imbalances
01:08:36 China's Move From Real Estate To Manufacturing Is Exacerbating Its Trade Surplus With The Rest Of The World
01:14:53 Chinese Real Estate Crisis Unlikely To Imperil The Chinese Banking System, Argues Pettis (Because The Government Is In Control)
01:18:58 What About The Chinese Shadow Banking System?
01:21:13 How Pettis Sees This All Playing Out
01:25:09 How Falling Real Estate Prices (And Stock Markets) Impact Sentiment In China

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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