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The Wagner mutiny of late June is likely one of the more dramatic events of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2023, and one that caught many observers and the international audience off guard.
Despite being closely watched by people around the world - much about the mutiny remains unknown - from its true purpose to the details of how and why it seemed to suddenly end.
In this episode I look at what we know so far, ask what prospects the attempt had for success, what observations we can tentatively make, and what the impacts going forward might be.
Patreon:
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Caveats & Comments:
As noted in the video - I don't know the details of what just happened (and likely neither do you) and so the analysis and timeline included here is necessarily based on the best information available to me at time of recording. Future revisions will likely be necessar
All other normal caveats (from information quality to 'this is not financial advice' to non-reliance apply as always
Relevant reading & sources:
Jonathan M Powell & Clayton L Thyne - Journal of Peace Research - Global instances of coups from 1950 to 2010: A new dataset
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Prigozhin charged with mutiny (TASS)
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Peskov denying responsibility for Wagner in Africa
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Putin backing MoD on Wagner contracts
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Reporting on Surovikin
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Zolotov on Rosgvardia getting heavy
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Reporting on Wagner vs the VKS
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On the response to Wagner troops
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Putin blasts Wagner as traitors
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Bulletin of Atomic science on the Wagner nuclear risk
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Reporting on Prigozhin speaking
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Included tweet by Tatarigami (details cut off by cropping)
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The many Coup accusations of Belarus
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Footage of Wagner in Rostov-on-Don
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Rumour of early warning of the plot
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Rusian propagandist on flexible legal norms
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NATO statement on Belarus and Wagner
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Included Anatol Lieven article
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As normal - my policy is not to link directly to Telegram channels belonging to groups like Wagner or Russian military bloggers as these often contain extremist or prohibited content
Flight tracker of Putin's jet
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Prigozhin on defending Belgorod
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Reporting on the Wagner taking a senior officer captive
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I also extend my thanks to all those on twitter whose content is included here
A special thanks to Tex of BPL for his help hunting down some relevant data.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — The Wagner Mutiny
00:01:56 — What Am I Talking About
00:04:16 — Rumours & Speculation
00:04:58 — Coups 101
00:10:39 — Rules For A Good One
00:17:11 — The Russian Attempt
00:31:02 — The Days After
00:33:03 — Could It Have Worked
00:36:38 — Conspiracy Theories
00:39:47 — Key Observations
00:47:20 — The Impact Going Forward?
01:04:57 — Conclusions
01:06:15 — Channel Update
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