On Episode 454 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Garima Kapoor, Economist and Executive Vice President at Elara Securities as well as C S Vigneshwar, president of the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA).
(00:00) Stories Of The Day
(00:50) Markets slide again as cues vanish
(02:41) RBI new governor is a IIT engineer
(05:25) The investment case for PSU stocks
(17:49) Car sales fall despite unprecedented discounts at dealerships
(27:12) Why 2024 will go down as the warmest year ever
Markets:
A rocking Wall Street over the weekend could not lift spirits on Dalal Street, which drifted lower after struggling to stay in the green.
While foreign portfolio investors are now more active, including releasing bullish equity reports, a surge in buying seems unlikely until next month.
The second half of December usually sees reduced activity as traders go on holidays.
On Monday, the BSE Sensex fell 200.66 points (0.25%) to 81,508.46, while NSE Nifty50 dropped 58.80 points (0.24%) to 24,619. The Nifty Midcap100 and Nifty Smallcap100 indices, however, rose 0.50% and 0.19%, respectively.
Shares of Godrej Consumer Products fell 9%, their worst drop since March 2020, dragging down FMCG stocks after warnings of demand and margin stress for Q3. This hints at continued challenges for consumer demand, particularly in the urban segment.
Saudi to Cut Oil Prices:
Saudi Arabia is cutting oil prices for Asia beyond expectations after OPEC+ delayed production increases, underlining weak market outlooks.
Saudi Aramco’s Arab Light crude premium will drop to $0.90 per barrel for January, down from $1.70 in December. Prices for Europe and the Mediterranean were also reduced, with no changes for North America.
Brent crude hovers around $72 per barrel, reflecting concerns over demand softness leading to a market surplus.
RBI’s New Governor:
The government has named Sanjay Malhotra, an engineer from IIT Kanpur and Secretary of Revenue, as the new RBI Governor starting December 11.
Outgoing Governor Shaktikanta Das, the second-longest serving governor, is credited with steadying the rupee and tightening risk frameworks for banks.
While speculation surrounds policy shifts under Malhotra, it’s clear the RBI must enhance its early warning systems, given past data inaccuracies.
State-Owned Story:
PSU stocks have outperformed expectations due to visible public spending on infrastructure and defense.
Elara Securities’ report suggests continued investment in PSUs, provided government spending remains robust.
Questions linger over whether PSU stock value lies in monopolistic advantages or intrinsic business strength.
Car Sales Swing Down:
Passenger vehicle sales dropped 13.72% YoY in November, with commercial vehicle sales down 6.08%. Two-wheeler sales grew 26.67% MoM, achieving record-high November registrations.
Honda Cars India CEO noted weak consumer sentiment and unprecedented discounts driving "artificial demand." Excess inventory and tighter financing are key challenges.
Warmest Year Ever:
2024 is set to be the warmest year on record, with global temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Extreme weather events, including droughts, floods, and heatwaves, have marked the year. Scientists are monitoring La Niña conditions, which could briefly cool temperatures but won’t reverse long-term warming caused by carbon emissions.
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