POST-ELECTION LANDSCAPE
Turkey’s general election has resulted in four parties being represented in the parliament. About 47 million votes were cast in the election. The Justice and Development Party - or the AK Party - received the most votes as expected, with 41 percent. It was followed by the Republican People’s Party - CHP - which received 24.96 percent as the main opposition party. The Nationalist Movement Party - MHP - received 16.29 percent of the vote, while the Peoples’ Democratic Party - HDP - passed Turkey’s 10 percent electoral threshold for the first time in its history with 13.12 percent of the vote. While the AK Party still has the most parliamentary seats, it is still 18 short of the 276 needed for a single-party majority to rule as a government. The CHP has 132 representatives while the MHP and HDP, despite a significant difference in the number of votes they received, each have 80 representatives.
FUTURE POSSIBILITIES
The results of the critical election show that after 13 years of single-party rule in Turkey a coalition government or early elections are on the horizon. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will first give the mandate to form the government to the AK Party as it has the highest number of votes. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu will seek a coalition partner from among the three opposition parties in parliament. Before the election Davutoglu had said “The AK Party will not be a part of a coalition government.” By the same token, both the leaders of the CHP and HDP had promised not to form a coalition government withO the AK Party during their election campaign. The CHP has since recanted, saying it respects the will of its voters and will attempt to negotiate with Davutoglu.
The MHP is the most likely party that the AK Party will go to first. The MHP has announced three conditions for a coalition:
1) No more insistence on a presidential system for Turkey
2) No more negotiations on the Kurdish issue
3) The investigation of corruption allegations
If Davutoglu is unsuccessful in forming a coalition, then the president will ask the other party leaders to form a government. The CHP would need to come to an agreement with both the MHP and HDP in order to form a three-party coalition which is the only coalition possible with the current number of seats held by each party. This could run into snags due to the MHP’s nationalist and HDP’s pro-Kurdish voter bases being implacably opposed one another.
IF NOT A COALITION, THEN WHAT?
The Turkish legislation says a government needs to be formed within 45 days otherwise a new election is in order. In that case the earliest date would be in the fall. That may spell months of uncertainty ahead for Turkey. The uncertainty has already affected post-election markets. The US dollar skyrocketed to 2.80 Turkish lira immediately after the elections but has since stabilised. The Euro is now over 3 Turkish lira. Investors along with concerned citizens are closely watching the outcome of the elections.
President Erdogan, in a press statement after the results came in, called on all four parties to ensure a smooth transition. He said that with respect to the current situation “it is of great importance that all political forces show responsible behaviour and the necessary sensitivity to preserve the atmosphere of stability and confidence in our country and our democratic achievements.”
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