Listen, a little over two years ago in the summer of 2022, Europe was embroiled in an energy crisis...
...the disruption of EU natural gas imports from Russia sent prices for the key fuel soaring over $100/MMBtu compared to a little over $10/MMBtu here in the US at that time.
It was tough to find any bears on natural gas prices back then – so many investors I spoke to were convinced US gas prices would need to soar inline with those in the EU. After all, if EU gas prices are (literally) 10 times higher than in the US, why wouldn’t US producers ramp up exports, causing prices to converge on both sides of the Atlantic?
The Biden Administration even signed a “deal” with the EU to help ease their crisis by maximizing LNG exports.
My colleague Roger Conrad and I were not bullish.
You see, LNG export (liquefaction) terminals take years to permit, site and build and in the near-term US export capacity is fixed – by late 2022 US LNG exports were already maxed out.
That’s the physical and economic reality of this market.
And once that reality dawned on financial markets, US gas prices collapsed to well under $2.00MMBtu, down more than 80% from their summer 2022 peak.
For much of the 2022-24 period, the maximum the US can export in the form of LNG has been about 12 billion cubic feet per day.
However, in 2025 that all changes in a BIG way.
You see, my research confirms that between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025, US LNG export capacity will jump by more than 30% -- more than 4 billion cubic feet per day – in just 1 year.
The truth is that markets are already reacting, and the best-placed companies are already locking in prices for the second half of 2025 at prices between
$3.50 to $4/MMBTu.
In the coming year, US gas producers will profit from the European energy crisis in a way that was impossible back in the summer of 2022 when the “crowd” was bullish.
To learn more about all the stocks we recommend to trade the Year of Natural Gas in 2025, go here:
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