(25 Feb 2022) Russian forces are invading Ukraine from three sides using military power by air, land, and sea, but President Vladimir Putin's efforts to seemingly overthrow Ukraine's government also include cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns.
Russian troops bore down on Ukraine's capital Friday, with explosions and gunfire sounding in the city as the invasion of a democratic country fueled fears of wider war in Europe and triggered international efforts to make Moscow stop.
With reports of hundreds of casualties from the warfare — including shelling that sliced through a Kyiv apartment building and pummeled bridges and schools — there also were growing signs that Vladimir Putin's Russia may be seeking to overthrow Ukraine's government. It would be his boldest effort yet to redraw the world map and revive Moscow's Cold War-era influence.
Michael Nagata, Former U.S. Army Lieutenant General who is also on the USIP Senior Military Advisory Group, believes Russia is "fairly close" to achieving all of it's military goals.
"I don't expect the large-scale violence of the last 24, 48 hours to continue indefinitely," Nagata said. "And I personally think history will end up recording that the most powerful and most important things Russia has done during this period we're not there kinetic actions, but rather they're non-kinetic actions that occur primarily in cyberspace."
Cyberattacks against Ukrainian government websites and affiliated organizations added to the confusion of Russia's military assault Thursday, including data-wiping malware activated a day earlier that cybersecurity researchers said infected hundreds of computers including in neighboring Latvia and Lithuania.
Some cybersecurity experts said prior to the assault that it might be in the Kremlin's intelligence — and information war — interests not to try to take down Ukraine's internet during a military attack.
Ukraine's cybersecurity service also published a list on its Telegram channel of known "active disinformation" channels to avoid.
In 2014, Russia flooded the internet with fake accounts pushing disinformation about its takeover of Crimea. Eight years later, experts say Russia is mounting a far more sophisticated effort as it invades Ukraine.
Armies of trolls and bots stir up anti-Ukrainian sentiment. State-controlled media outlets look to divide Western audiences. Clever TikTok videos serve up Russian nationalism with a side of humor.
The effort amounts to an emerging part of Russia's war arsenal with the shaping of opinion through orchestrated disinformation fighting alongside actual troops and weapons.
"I'm more worried about Russia's influence operations than I am worried about their ability to do to the cyber infrastructure attacks," Nagata said. "Both are very worrisome. But if you're able to change what an entire population believes, you may not have to attack anything. That population will do what you want them to do anyways."
Analysts at several different research organizations contacted by The Associated Press said they are seeing a sharp increase in online activity by groups affiliated with the Russian state.
That's in keeping with Russia's strategy of using social media and state-run outlets to galvanize domestic support while seeking to destabilize the Western alliance.
Russia tailors its propaganda message for specific audiences.
For Russians and pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine, the message is that Russia is trying to defend its own people against Western-fueled aggression and persecution in Ukraine.
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