MARK MY WORDS! Silver's About to Be the BIGGEST BREAKOUT STORY In History - Rafi Farber
Gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange saw a notable rebound in September, rising by 13% month-on-month to 115 tons. This increase aligns with seasonal trends, as retailers replenished their inventories in preparation for the anticipated boost in sales during China’s early October National Day Holiday and the peak season in Q4. This reflects a broader trend in the precious metals market, where demand for gold and silver surges during periods of heightened economic activity or uncertainty.
Rafi Farber, a financial analyst specializing in gold and silver markets, explains that during economic distress, gold prices rise first because banks typically hold gold as a reserve asset. Due to its relative affordability, silver emerges as the public's preferred alternative when gold becomes too expensive. In 2020, people flocked to gold and silver amid global uncertainty caused by COVID-19 lockdowns.
While gold demand soared, silver remained more accessible to everyday investors. The behavior of central banks also plays a critical role in influencing gold prices. Data from the World Gold Council shows that central banks’ net gold purchases increased by 6% year-on-year in the second quarter of this year, reaching 184 tons. Central banks rely heavily on gold to diversify their reserves, but silver, unlike gold, does not enjoy the same institutional demand. While some discussions, such as Russia’s consideration of adding non-gold precious metals to its non-central bank holdings, have emerged, silver’s price volatility has deterred many central banks from using it as a reserve asset.
Silver has performed strongly, with its price rising by 35% since the LBMA conference in October 2024. Many investors see silver as undervalued compared to gold, making it an attractive asset. Silver is increasingly considered a cost-effective alternative and a strategic long-term investment amid economic uncertainty.
Rafi Farber explains that when people lose faith in the dollar’s ability to maintain purchasing power, they often turn to silver as a reliable store of value. This sentiment has been reflected in the recent bullish activity in the silver market, which continues to eye the 32.50 dollar level as both a target and a potential barrier.
As of early Wednesday, silver prices remained volatile, with the market showing signs of strength and caution. If silver can break above the 32.50 dollar level on a daily close, it could signal a strong upward movement, potentially reaching the 35-dollar level in the longer term. However, given the current market conditions, a short-term pullback seems likely. Such a dip would allow investors to buy silver at lower prices, attracting those looking to capitalize on cheaper ounces.
This dynamic reflects Farber’s broader analysis, where silver becomes the public’s alternative to gold in times of economic uncertainty. With ongoing concerns about the dollar's stability, the silver market remains noisy and potentially lucrative, offering investors a chance to hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.
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