Today the Western democracies live in a gray zone, a time between peace and war, where malign activities such as cyber-attacks, disinformation, propaganda campaigns and intelligence operations are designed to achieve long-term objectives without triggering direct escalation. With intensifying international political, economic and military competition, state and non-state adversaries are using plenty of unconventional warfare elements to undermine liberal governments. This gray zone warfare is becoming more innovative and hostile. Belarus hijacking of Ryanair plane and the migrant crisis at the Eastern flank is a clear attack on democracies and signals that the lines between peace and wartime have become increasingly blurred. While the world is still battling the COVID-19 pandemic, hostile adversaries will continue to further exploit states’ vulnerabilities. Are we doomed for failure when the other side is not playing by the same rules? Or is there an efficient way how democracies can identify and counter gray zone warfare elements? With growing range of indirect and non-military warfare elements aimed to disrupt the society, there is an increasing necessity for states to enhance societal preparedness through resilience instruments. Is societal resilience the new civilian equivalent for combat-ready and equipped armed forces and as such a deterrent in itself? The discussion will examine the best practices how democracies can effectively counter malicious activities in the gray zone through ensuring better deterrence and resilience.
Dr Artis Pabriks, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Defence of the Republic of Latvia
James Heappey, Minister for the Armed Forces, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State, United Kingdom
Ian Brzezinski, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council
Moderator: Elisabeth Braw, Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, Member of the U.K. National Preparedness Commission, columnist at the Foreign Policy
