This video explains the key differences between three common scenario planning methods used in futures & foresight: the 4 Archetypes method, the Shell Method, and the 2x2 Matrix.
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CORRECTION: it is more appropriate to say that the 4 generic futures are predetermined images of the future/archetypes, not predetermined narratives
REFERENCES
Scenario Archetypes Method:
Bengston et al. (2016). Alternative Futures for Forest Based Nanomaterials: An Application of the Manoa School’s Alternative Futures Method: [ Ссылка ]
Curry & Schultz (2009). Roads Less Travelled: Different Methods, Different Futures: [ Ссылка ]
Dator (2009). Alternative Futures at the Manoa School: [ Ссылка ]
Dator (2014). “New beginnings” within a new normal for the four futures: [ Ссылка ]
Jones, C. (1992). The Manoa School of Futures Studies. Futures Research Quarterly, 8(4): 19-25.
Serra Del Pino (1998). The challenge of teaching futures studies: [ Ссылка ]
Shell Method:
Ramirez & Wilkinson (2014). Rethinking the 2 × 2 scenario method: Grid or frames?: [ Ссылка ]
Schwartz (1996). The Art of the Long View: [ Ссылка ]
Wack (1985). Scenarios: uncharted waters ahead: [ Ссылка ]
Wack (1985). Scenarios: shooting the rapids: [ Ссылка ]
2X2 Method:
Cairns & Wright (2018). Scenario thinking: Preparing your organization for the future in an unpredictable world: [ Ссылка ]
Chermack (2011). Scenario planning in organizations: How to create, use, and assess scenarios: [ Ссылка ]
Ramirez & Wilkinson (2014). Rethinking the 2 × 2 scenario method: Grid or frames?: [ Ссылка ]
Wright et al. (2013). Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios?: [ Ссылка ]
Foresight games:
Bontoux et al. (2016). The JRC Scenario Exploration System - From Study to Serious Game: [ Ссылка ]
Bontoux et al. (2020). A Game for All Seasons: Lessons and Learnings from
the JRC’s Scenario Exploration System: [ Ссылка ]
Sweeney (2017). Game On: Foresight at Play with the United Nations: [ Ссылка ]
Thing From the Future (game): [ Ссылка ].
Our Futures Game (game): [ Ссылка ]
Scenario Exploration System (game): [ Ссылка ]
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