We are now about to move into the third cycle of this year's LRC. La Niña is trying to form and the Arctic Oscillation is dipping negative. The LRC tells us when and where significant weather events will likely develop, track, and impact. ENSO, the current phase of decreasing tropical water temperatures off of South America, or a La Niña episode, tends to shift precipitation patterns east in North America. The developing deep AO negative forecast within the next week showcases the potential for a major Arctic outbreak. These all combine to help the forecaster make accurate predictions.

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