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Maldives–China defense relations endanger India's influence.

The Maldives have been subjugated by China as part of its all-out assault against the Indian subcontinent.

The bilateral ties between Male and New Delhi have deteriorated ever since the election victory of Mohamed Muizzu, the President of the Maldives, in 2023. Amidst Muizzu's sojourn in Beijing in January 2024, a sequence of bilateral accords pertaining to infrastructure, energy, maritime, and agriculture collaboration were signed between the Maldives and China. The bilateral ties between the Maldives and China were reinforced in March 2024 through the execution of two defense agreements, wherein China pledged to furnish military aid.

The triangular relations among China, the Maldives, and India, as well as the regional security balance, may not be inherently altered by these agreements. However, this has caused concern, particularly in India. Considering the Maldives' resource constraints and its status as a small nation, the country's pursuit of military assistance from China may be motivated by national security, maritime protection, or disaster management.

The Maldives' military capabilities may be fortified through China's assistance; this may not be interpreted as a strategic maneuver to alter regional dynamics. However, it is possible that China is engaging in military cooperation as part of a larger plan to consolidate its power and reduce India's sphere of influence in South Asian nations.

Muizzu has also requested that India begin the withdrawal of its military forces stationed in the Maldives. Concurrently, China has increased its presence in the Maldives on a consistent basis, as evidenced by $200 million worth of infrastructure projects, including the China–Maldives Friendship Bridge. Permission for the Chinese ocean research vessel Xiang Yang Hong 03 to enter a port in the Maldives provides additional evidence of China's influence.

In addition, India is presently enhancing its naval capabilities on the Lakshadweep islands, which are situated around 130 kilometers to the north of the Maldives and are of critical strategic importance. By stationing a naval element on Minicoy Island, the Indian Navy intends to increase "monitoring activities" in the area, according to details disclosed by the navy.

The Indian Navy made a public declaration in March 2024 regarding the augmentation of its military power on islands that are strategically significant in proximity to the Maldives.

Established on March 6, the INS Jatayu commenced operations in the Lakshadweep archipelago of India. Designed to operate autonomously, it was recently commissioned. This strategic maneuver serves as an indication that India is bolstering its naval capacities in order to sustain a state of alertness and proactively counter potential challenges in the area.

China's 'String of Pearls' grand strategy places significant emphasis on the Maldives. China's endeavours to augment its sphere of influence by means of an intricate network of naval bases and commercial ports that encircle critical maritime routes constitute this strategic concept.

From the Indian subcontinent, the Maldives is situated at a strategic distance of 1200 kilometers, while the Lakshadweep archipelago is reached in merely 700 kilometers. The increasing Chinese influence in the Maldives, which is in close proximity to India, gives rise to substantial security concerns.

A prevailing perception exists that the implications of China's swift maritime expansion and military modernization in the Indian Ocean region have been underestimated by the international community. China is now willing to counterbalance Indian interests in the Indian Ocean and U.S. interests in the West Pacific as a result of its transformation into a global naval power.

Due to its expanding influence in the Indian Ocean and its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, China may decide to establish a military presence in the area. The aforementioned trends are of great importance to India due to the fact that China's actions could potentially limit India's operational space and diminish its traditional leverage with minor regional states.

The potential establishment of a Chinese naval base on a Maldivian island could create a maritime front against India, thereby intensifying military pressure along the Himalayan border and signifying a turning point in China's strategic encirclement of its neighbor.

The Maldives has become a pivotal location in the pursuit of China's strategic objectives. The recent defense pacts and collaborative efforts between China and the Maldives highlight an emerging alignment that has the potential to fortify China's standing in the Indian Ocean. The Maldives, situated within India's sphere of influence, have the potential to bolster China's maritime capabilities and presence as an integral component of the 'String of Pearls'.

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