So potentially, how many people could be infected in the current surge? Experts say Taiwan could see a total of 7 million COVID cases in the future. They say that booster coverage is likely to reach 70% or 80% at most. Going by a coverage rate of 70%, the remaining 30%, or an estimated 7 million people, would remain vulnerable to infection, and 23,000 of them would be at risk of a severe infection. Experts say that, to prevent hospitals from becoming overburdened, Taiwan must find ways to "flatten the curve," or to slow the speed of viral spread.
In an interview conducted via teleconference, Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je warned that Taiwan could see a total of 7 million COVID infections in the future.
Qu Da-cheng
Taipei City Hospital superintendent
The number of infections has already surpassed the previous Taiwan record. Right now, the Rt number is not so high. But why are our infection numbers shooting up? This means there are many outbreaks in the community that have not been caught. It means there are now too many sources of infection.
On Tuesday, Taipei City Hospital superintendent Qu Da-cheng offered insight into what Taiwan could expect to see in the future. He said Taiwan’s booster coverage is likely to hit 70% or 80% at most. A 70% coverage rate would still leave 30% of the population, or about 7 million people, at full risk of infection. He added that in South Korea, about 30% of the population had caught COVID.
Qu Da-cheng
Taipei City Hospital superintendent
South Korea saw an extremely big outbreak. Already, the total number of confirmed cases has reached 30% of the population. In other countries, this sharp rise and fall of infection numbers occurred over a timeframe of four to eight weeks. We would expect Taiwan to see 23,000 severe COVID cases. Taipei would see about 2,600 severe cases, or an average of 50 cases per day.
Lee Ping-ing
CECC expert advisory panel
In some countries that have lifted COVID restrictions, the number of COVID infections has surpassed 1 million cases. But the factor to look at is the time period. If cases go up slowly over a longer time period, that wouldn’t have a severe impact on our health system. That would be among the best-case scenarios we can expect.
Experts say COVID efforts now should focus on preventing sharp spikes in infections, so that the health system doesn’t collapse.
