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After the best annual performance in 20 years – principally driven by energy markets – commodities should moderate in 2022, as a confluence of higher supply, fading fiscal stimulus and broader monetary policy tightening will weigh on prices, and with it, ease inflationary pressures.
This is according to Ehsan Khoman, Head of Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), who in this week’s podcast contextualises prospects for commodities next year.
Longer-term, he expects continued structural underinvestment in energy – which has been prevalent since the 2008-09 Great Financial Crisis (GFC) as ESG forces have gained traction – to cause commodity prices to significantly overshoot to the upside, in order to provide the incentive for large-scale green infrastructure to be met, propelling "greenflation" higher.
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