POLLING: How Muslim & Arab Americans Will Likely Vote
The Arab American Vote: There are 2.3 million voters who are Arab American. The latest polling from Arab News and YouGov , a nationwide poll conducted September 26 - October 1, found:
- 45% - Donald Trump (Republican)
- 43% - Kamala Harris (Democratic)
- 6% - Undecided
- 4% - Dr. Jill Stein (Green)
- 2% - prefer not to say
This latest polling is a huge departure from July polling that ADC National conducted of the Arab American community which had Stein at 45.3% and Trump with only 2% of the vote.
Either the methodology of these polls varied greatly, or a mix of Trump’s engagement of the Arab American community, driven by Tiffany Trump’s Lebanese father-in-law, and/or a desire to punish Harris for the Biden Harris administration’s complicit role in the genocide in Gaza and Israeli invasion of Lebanon have shifted the community over the course of the past few months.
In 2020, 59% of Arab American voters indicated they would vote for Joe Biden, and 35% indicated they would vote for Trump.
The Muslim American Vote: There are estimated to be 2.5 million voters who are Muslim American. The latest polling from CAIR, a nationwide poll conducted October 30-31, finds that almost no Muslim American voters remain undecided.
The breakdown by candidate:
- 42.3% - Dr. Jill Stein (Green)
- 41% - Kamala Harris (Democratic)
- 9.8% - Donald Trump (Republican)
- 5.4% - Not Voting
In striking contrast, in 2020, 86% of Muslim Americans voted for Biden and only 6% voted for Trump.
Check out this post for an estimated breakdown of Arab and Muslim American voters by swing state.
