Michael Oliver: I'm Changing My Entire Price Predictions for Gold & Silver in 2025 - Here's Why
Stocks have generally performed better than gold over the years, but there can be exceptions. Looking back 20 years, for example, gold has outperformed the S&P 500.
At present, precious metals are trending higher, as they did with the stock market in the mid-1960s. That is the best historical comparison. Even if in 2025, we get these bullish signals for precious metals (S&P 500 peaks, Gold breaks out against the 60/40 Portfolio), the secular bull market could last midway through the next decade. If the secular bull in the stock market continues for another 13 months, we could see a precious metals peak in 2036-2037.
Michael Oliver, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis, comments on the ongoing gold bull market and its relationship to the stock market. Fueled by excessive monetary expansion and low rates, Oliver warns a 2025 downturn could redirect investments from stocks into gold. The price of gold can fluctuate in the short term, but in the long term, it can outperform asset classes such as equities and property. For example, when the stock market collapsed in 2007, investment demand for gold spiked and continued to rise, and gold doubled in value between 2007 and 2011. Similarly, with fear and uncertainty at an all-time high during the Covid-19 pandemic, the price of the metal hit record highs, as did inflows of gold-backed exchange-traded funds.
Concurrently, he predicts a market downturn will push asset managers to shift funds into gold, fueling its next big rally.
Based on fundamentals, Michael Oliver underscores silver's volatility, describing it as "a nasty little dog on a leash held by gold," and emphasizes silver's tendency to outperform gold. Analysts from Heraeus Precious Metals stated that while a potential economic recession in the US will affect industrial demand for silver, much of the recent strength of this precious metal is expected to carry over into the new year, with silver prices expected to outperform gold in 2025.
In his analysis, Michael Oliver predicts that once the Federal Reserve shifts focus to a weakening economy, it will likely begin pumping money into the system after a stock market peak. He highlights commodities in the Bloomberg Index as historically undervalued, with 18 months of sideways trading. Oliver expects a breakout driven by technical momentum, making commodities a key low-risk investment opportunity. There are six main subsectors of the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Only one of those six had negative returns.
Market observers monitor conditions for a pain trade or price movement that no one has on their radar. In 2025, a commodity bull market is a prime candidate for the pain trade. The evidence is before our eyes: US large-cap equity price-to-earnings ratios are 22x, toward the high end of a range from 11 to 23 post-financial crisis, even while company margins are 12% for two quarters in a row, and 2025 earnings are estimated to rise 15%.
Moreover, Oliver points to agriculture-related stocks and commodities as key investment opportunities for 2025, offering a low-risk alternative.
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