For UPSTAT 2021.

Abstract:
Sea-level rise is causing damages to coastal areas all around the world. Predictions of future sea-level rise are critical for planning future adaptation methods to mitigate damage to coastal areas, but subject to many uncertainties, including extreme sea levels and uncertain distributions of future damages. Two common types of adaptation are protecting the land by building seawalls or retreating further inland. In order to determine which method, and to what level of protection, is best for each coastal segment, we use a model for Coastal Adaptation and Impacts (CIAM). This model examines the sea-level rise, storm surge hazard, and other socioeconomic factors throughout the 21st century to determine which adaptation method will minimize the expected discounted future damages for each individual coastal segment. Our model assumes the optimal adaptation method is implemented within the ten year time horizon, and that we have perfect information about sea-level rise on this time-frame. Here, we show the total expected costs associated with sea-level rise increase dramatically when the adaptation is delayed. We find that by the year 2050, the annual average cost when adapting optimally in the United States increases by about $10 billion with a 10-year delay. With a 20-year delay, this cost is even higher. Our results demonstrate the importance of not procrastinating action to adapt to sea-level rise - delays now lead to increased costs in the future.

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