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Now the Russian occupation forces are conducting, perhaps, one of the most intense and desperate stages in their offensive campaign, as a result of which they are suffering catastrophic losses in personnel and other categories. Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko said this.
According to him, Russian occupiers are increasingly rare in the combat zone with purebred MLRS, namely the 122-mm BM-21 "Grad", 220-mm BM-27 "Uragan" and 300-mm BM-30 "Smerch". Instead, the production of home-made rocket systems, created by crossing naval rocket launchers such as RBU-1200, RBU-6000 with MT-LB, BMP-1, T-72, T-80, Ural-4320 chassis and even ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft mounts, has been put on the market.
“The reason for the spread of such "homunculuses" was the sharp reduction in MLRS in the composition of the RVA and the inability of enterprises to compensate for monthly losses.
The situation is so critical that in the first week of December the occupiers did not lose a single MLRS. It would seem that it is not bad for them. But the thing is that there are so few systems themselves that they have become an extremely rare beast on the front. This situation has been going on since November 2023, after which the average rate of lost multiple launch rocket systems per month in the ROV did not exceed 30 units”, expert added.
He said that, in Russia, of the enterprises that produce self-propelled guns, only Uraltransmash remains operational, but its sites allow producing an incomplete artillery battery of Msta-S per month, which is 3-4 units. Russian propaganda is now cheerfully reporting on the supply of 152-mm 2S43 "Malva" to the combat zone, but these are the same units compared to real needs. There is a similar problem with towed artillery – there is no production, only restoration, which has depleted storage arsenals.
And if the problem with self-propelled guns has long been obvious, then with towed artillery it will manifest itself much more clearly in the ROV in 2025. After all, in just 11 months of 2024, 12,441 artillery systems were destroyed and damaged, which is one and a half times more than in the entire years 2022 and 2023 combined.
Since the summer, the average monthly loss of tanks by the Russian occupation forces has been 300 units. In December, it may not even reach 200 MBTs. And this despite the fact that throughout 2023 there were stable losses in the range of 350-450 – with a record 521 tanks in October, when the offensive on Avdiivka began.
Russia has fewer and fewer tanks at its disposal, so they are now being used as sparingly as possible and only in special cases, deploying tank columns in important areas. “Air defense is another category that is becoming critically scarce in the Russian military-industrial complex. The loss of each unit of air defense for the Russian military-industrial complex under conditions of production limited by sanctions is a practically impossible task. Losing an average of 30 units of air defense per month, Russian enterprises are unable to compensate for them with production”, Oleksandr Kovalenko said.
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