Ukraine will be de facto partitioned this year, an unacceptable outcome for Ukraine and the West that will nevertheless become a reality. Ian Bremmer explains why this is Eurasia Group's #3 top risk for 2024.

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Top Risks is Eurasia Group's annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of the year. This year's report was published on 8 January 2024.
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Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, and co-author of the report, explains Risk #3: PARTITIONED UKRAINE

Ukraine will be de facto partitioned this year, an unacceptable outcome for Ukraine and the West that will nevertheless become reality. At a minimum, Russia will keep control of the territory it now occupies on the Crimean peninsula and in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts—about 18% of Ukraine's territory—as the war settles into a defensive struggle with a fairly static line of control. But Russia now has the battlefield initiative and a material advantage, and it could take more land in 2024. This year is an inflection point in the war: If Ukraine doesn't solve its manpower problems, increase weapons production, and set a realistic military strategy soon, it could “lose” the war as early as next year.

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GZERO Media is a multimedia publisher providing news, insights and commentary on the events shaping our world. Our properties include GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, our newsletter GZERO Daily, Puppet Regime, the GZERO World Podcast, In 60 Seconds and GZEROMedia.com

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