On today’s episode, Stig and Preston speak with Ed Harrison, the editor at Real Vision TV. Ed talks to us about why facing a double-dip recession is the base case scenario.


Preston Pysh
Ed, in the latest earnings call, JPMorgan Chase CEO, Jamie Dimon, was openly reflected on the potential double-dip recession. Could you please take us through some of those scenarios?

Ed Harrison
Yeah, I think that the scenario is a combination of what’s happening both on the consumer level as a result of the coronavirus and also in terms of the fiscal level and that’s where potentially the two come together. So let me put it this way, that the United States, we’ve had three waves of the coronavirus. We had the first wave, which gave us the shutdown, which was fairly global. GDP really went down hard across the globe. Everyone reopened in the spring to the summer, but the United States had the second wave of coronavirus infections. And that wave was concentrated in the South. We saw some modest falls in economic growth there, but it wasn’t a widespread national wave. And so overall, even despite the rollback and the reopening, we were able to continue to grow at really high rates.

Ed Harrison
Now, we’re in the middle of a third wave, which started probably in late October, mid-October timeframe, and the numbers are starting to rival what they were in the first wave, except it’s not as concentrated, but the numbers are high enough that we’re talking 100,000 people almost hospitalized across the United States that we’re getting to healthcare system overload in many different places. And that has precipitated a number of shutdowns, rollbacks of the economy. And that’s what’s causing a degree of growth to roll over. The more we get these shutdowns, the more you have the hospitalization causing an overload of the healthcare system, the higher the probability that, that rolls over into a near recession or recession territory.


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