What is “Complexity on one slide?” Glad you asked. It’s taken a couple of decades, but a lot of things have started to come together in what Dave Snowden terms anthro-complexity or naturalizing sense-making. Combining Deleuzian Epistemology, Constructor theory from Physics, and Complexity Science will hopefully provide a coherent and easy-to-understand picture of the field. There were always interesting elements, but now they are linked.
In this session, Dave will outline the approach and, as a part of that, dive deeper into Estuarine Mapping, which has taken off a lot faster than expected. Having completed that, he will apply the thinking to current dilemmas and opportunities around what is called AI. Are we moving to a world where only the hyper-rich are allowed to know what is true or false? Is creating a dependency on Chat GBT and the like a threat to human intelligence - dumbing us down to the level where we can be out-competed?
*Dave Snowden*
Dave is the founder and Chief Scientific Officer of The Cynefin Company (formerly known as Cognitive Edge) and the founder and Director of the Centre for Applied Complexity at the University of Wales. His work has been focused on looking at complex issues relating to strategy and organizational decision-making. He has pioneered a science-based approach to complex organizational issues - drawing on anthropology, neuroscience, and complex adaptive systems theory.
*Timestamps*
00:00:00 Intro
00:01:29 *Opening Remarks*
00:04:38 Getting to Here (background)
00:10:56 The Use of Assemblage Theory
00:12:13 Complexity's not about causality, it's about patterns
00:19:03 Constructor Theory (& Counterfactuals)
00:22:00 Estuarine Framework - Theory
00:26:15 Estuarine Framework - Mapping
00:29:09 Estuarine Framework - Actions
00:34:01 Talking with C-level Executives
00:38:58 Distributed Decision-making (4E)
00:43:52 Schools of Complexity
00:46:40 *Group Discussion*
00:47:03 QA - Energy Gradients
00:51:37 QA - Objects & Agency in Western Cultures
00:54:42 QA - Regulators & Auditability
00:58:25 QA - Change Happens at the Micro Level
01:00:48 QA - Corporate Acquisitions
01:03:03 QA - Alicia Comments 1
01:10:57 QA - Wisdom of Crowds
01:12:57 QA - Alicia Comments 2
01:17:58 QA - Scaffolding
01:23:40 QA - Adjacent From or Adjacent To
01:27:46 QA - Why Estuarine?
01:33:42 QA - Teaching International Strategic Management
01:40:41 QA - Identity, Assemblage, & Deterritorialization
01:47:43 Final Thoughts
01:48:35 Summary
*Find Dave*
The Cynefin Co: [ Ссылка ]
LinkedIn: [ Ссылка ]
*Slides*
Presentation Slides: [ Ссылка ]
*References*
Assemblage theory: [ Ссылка ]
Deterritorialization: [ Ссылка ]
Estuarine Framework: [ Ссылка ]
Triopticon: [ Ссылка ]
The "Adjacent Possible" - Stuart Kauffman (TED): [ Ссылка ]
Constructor Theory: [ Ссылка ]
What Is Constructor Theory - [ Ссылка ]
Constructor Theory - David Deutsch (2012): [ Ссылка ]
Design Unbound: Designing for Emergence in a White Water World, Vol 1: [ Ссылка ]
The Science of Can and Can't - A Physicist's Journey Through the Land of Counterfactuals - Chiara Marletto (2022): [ Ссылка ]
Constructor Theory of Life - Chiara Marletto (2014): [ Ссылка ]
Extended Mind Thesis: [ Ссылка ]
Obliquity, Why Our Goals are Best Achieved Indirectly - John Anderson Kay (2010): [ Ссылка ]
*Notes & Quotes*
4E - As described by Mark Rowlands, mental processes are:
• Embodied involves more than the brain, including a more general involvement of bodily structures and processes.
• Embedded functioning only in a related external environment.
• Enacted involving not only neural processes but also things an organism does.
• Extended into the organism's environment.
"Old men are philosophers, old wives tell tales." - Beth Smith
"Complexity is not about causality, it's about patterns." - Dave (12:13)
"How do you make the energy cost of 'Sin' higher than the energy cost of 'Virtue'?" - Dave (33:49)
Complex systems scale by decomposition (to the lowest level of coherent granularity) and then through recombination.
